EUR/USD weekly forecast: Euro to Dollar outlook for August 12, 2024
Technical analysis for Support and resistance levels:
Based on the technical indicators and chart patterns observed at the time of writing ( current rate 1.0926) :
Support: The EUR/USD pair is showing strong support around the 1.0800 level, with potential further support at 1.0750, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud’s lower boundary.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1050, with a more significant barrier at 1.1100, which coincides with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.
Ichimoku Cloud: The pair is trading slightly above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a mild bullish sentiment. However, the flat Kijun-sen line indicates potential consolidation in the near term.
MACD: The MACD indicator is showing signs of bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward movement.
RSI: The RSI is hovering around the 50-60 range, indicating neutral momentum with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
Economic Data Events
The upcoming week is packed with key economic releases from the US, which will significantly impact the EUR/USD pair:
• Tuesday, August 13: The Core PPI and PPI m/m are forecasted to remain steady at 0.2%. Any deviation from this could influence the USD’s strength.
• Wednesday, August 14: The Core CPI and CPI data are critical, with expectations of 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y, respectively. Higher-than-expected inflation could bolster the USD.
• Thursday, August 15: Retail Sales data, forecasted at 0.1% for Core Retail Sales and 0.4% for Retail Sales, will be crucial in determining consumer confidence. Unemployment Claims are expected to rise slightly, which could pressure the USD if the data disappoints.
Weekly Forecast for GBP/USD based on different scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If the EUR/USD breaks above 1.1050 and the economic data favors a weaker USD, the pair could target 1.1100 and higher.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below 1.0800 could see the pair testing the 1.0750 support, especially if the US economic data shows strength.
Neutral Scenario: Consolidation between 1.0800 and 1.1050 is likely if the data aligns with forecasts and no significant surprises emerge.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Full Disclaimer
